2nd Monday AM Update: AMC just made it official…opening weekend for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is $92.8M, still second-best domestic start for October. Per Screen Average is $24,073.
Days broken out are:
Friday – $37,525,947 million
Saturday – $32,003,145 Million
Sunday – $23,275,586 Million
As we told you previously, while the film commanded 69% of the $135M box office, a majority of Eras Tour‘s ticket sales came from AMC theaters, around 41% of the pic’s gross. Typically on a blockbuster movie the chain commands 22% to 25% of the weekend. Essentially this wasn’t a boats all rise situation for rival exhibitors since stateside moviegoers though the only place to see Eras Tour was an AMC theater.
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Other AMC highlights which hopefully move the share price skyward:
—Eras Tour delivered AMC a record setting October.
–Pic is now the biggest box office opening ever for AMC in October, and most attended in regards of admission.
–Versus the same weekend in 2022, AMC Theatres specifically was up 159% this weekend as a result of Swift.
MONDAY AM: Industry estimates are calling the AMC-distributed Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour concert movie’s weekend this morning at $93.3M; that’s the second-best domestic opening ever for the month of October after Joker ($96.2M). We’ve been telling you that this is where Swift was headed since Saturday night, and that’s a fantastic opening for a pic that cost between $10M-$20M, and had a marketing spend that was well below $10M.
Sunday came in at an estimated $23.3M, -28% from Saturday’s estimate of $32.3M. That means Friday was $37.7M, not the bloated reported $39M. AMC will be issuing their numbers later this morning. I understand this won’t be an Angel Studios scenario where box office is getting inflated by zany means, i.e. Swifties buying up tickets in bulk and handing them out for free, only to have the movie play to empty auditoriums. Of the 3,850 theaters that played Eras Tour, 3,748 reported into Comscore, which means that there’s 102 theaters unaccounted for, however, rival studio distribution analysts assess these types of numerical situations 365 days a year — there’s no way in hell that 102 theaters made an extra $2M-$3M here. At this level, the global start for Swift is between $124M-$126M; the international projection of $31M-$33M yesterday needs to be made official today.
Sunday’s hold off of Saturday for Swift isn’t that far from Joker‘s -24% Sunday vs. Saturday. Next to other female skewing pics, yesterday’s hold for Eras Tour bests the Sunday vs. Saturday % of Twilight (-41%), Hunger Games (-30%) but is steeper than Barbie (-9%). Some peg Eras Tour‘s holds throughout the weekend to the fact that it was presold.
This is going to be an interesting experiment this week: Eras Tour goes dark for Monday-Thursday before projecting its light on the silver screen this Friday. For what’s suppose to be a front-loaded, young female skewing movie, it will be interesting to see how Swift holds up. Note, the movie isn’t expected to hold like Joker, which eased -42% in its second weekend with $55.8M. Apple Original Films and Paramount’s Killers of the Flower Moon hits theaters this weekend with a 3 hour and 26 minute runtime, 95% certified fresh critics score on Rotten Tomatoes, Imax screens and a tracking forecast for a $20M+ opening.
SUNDAY AM: The AMC distributed Taylor Swift: Eras Tour concert movie, per AMC, is eyeing an opening of $95M-$97M this AM, which means for them, the dust hasn’t settled yet. EntTelligence says 4.8M Swifties or people went to see Eras Tour this weekend, having paid an average of $20.75 for a ticket (across all formats). Anything above Joker‘s $96.2M opening is a record opening for the month of October.
But here’s the thing: rival distributors, which have access to all box office data, only see the pic as the second-best opener of October at around $94.3M. AMC, in their first wide release rodeo here, should be careful not to get over their skis, as team Swift will want to know where every nickel is coming from. Saturday is still estimated at $32.3M, which is a hair below Joker’s Saturday of $32.4M. A Sunday that’s off -15% from Saturday; AMC realizes, that is a high jump. After 6 PM today, foot traffic goes backwards. Being off 25% or 30% today is more in the realm, we hear.
“Even if tracking is broken, this is a fantastic opening in a post-pandemic world,” said one studio box office analyst today.
Beamed Elizabeth Frank, EVP, worldwide programming & chief content officer, AMC Theatres:
“We are grateful to Taylor Swift for allowing us to make Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour concert film accessible to millions of fans in movie theatres around the world. Her spectacular performance delighted fans, who dressed up and danced through the film. With tremendous recommendations and fans buying tickets to see this concert film several times, we anticipate Taylor Swift: Eras Tour concert film playing to big audiences for weeks to come.”
Some 60% of the tickets were committed in advance (“unheard” of, per EntTelligence), which made tracking and other distribution sources go wild in projecting Eras Tour north of $100M. Since EntTelligence’s post-pandemic launch, Eras Tour is one of the highest presales they’ve ever seen. By way of an apples and oranges comparison due to the way Thursday night preview activity was handled on Eras Tour, Avatar: The Way of Water (sans Thursday) had 61% of their revenue locked and loaded at 9 AM PST for opening day.
As we knew well before Eras Tour opened, Swift was set in her U.S/Canadian opening to bury the entire domestic total of 2011’s Justin Bieber: Never Say Never ($73M), the previous highest- grossing concert pic stateside.
As we told you, moviegoers think the only place to see Eras Tour is at an AMC theater, and that’s because the circuit was the first to put the word out about their first distributed wide release before the competition. In flash Friday and Saturday grosses, AMC owns 95 of the top 100 highest-grossing theater spots, or 41% of the overall exhibition marketshare of the weekend.
The only non-AMC theaters in the top 100 are No. 44 Regal Irvine Spectrum, No. 73 Regal Bridgeport Village in Portland, OR, No. 83 Cineplex Winston Churchill in Toronto, No. 96 Cinemark Moosic in Wilkes Barres and No. 99 Regal Fresno Riverpark in California.
Top theater in the nation was AMC Disney Springs in Orlando with $239K so far, followed by AMC Lincoln Square with $217K, then third is AMC Boston Common with $199K. Cinemark had 13.8% of the weekend’s tickets sales on Swift, Regal was 13.2%, Canada’s Cineplex was 5.7%, and Marcus was fifth with 2.5%.
EntTelligence breaks down Eras Tour foot traffic as follows: 19% came before 1PM, 33% between 1PM-5PM, 36% between 5PM-8PM, and 12% after 8PM.
More victory laps for Eras Tour…
“It was another landmark weekend for cinemas, with moviegoers turning out in droves for a fantastic concert beautifully filmed for the big screen,” exclaimed NATO’s new President & CEO Michael O’Leary. “This year has been marked by unprecedented experiences for movie lovers in theaters across this nation. The ‘Eras Tour’ debut proves, yet again, that fans are eager to share other experiences in a communal way, with theater owners working creatively to build memorable moments in their cinemas.”
Imax and PLF repped 26% of the weekend. Imax stateside did $11.1M at 377 screens, or 11.4%. Global is $13.1M for Imax, which is the biggest opening for a musical act film, concert, or documentary. International markets earn $2M from 236 screens. Another 106 Imax international screens will open for Eras Tour on October 26 and November 3.
“The impressive numbers we’re seeing with Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour are usually reserved for Hollywood blockbusters, demonstrating how demand for the Imax Experience has expanded beyond our core audience,” said Rich Gelfond, CEO of Imax. “With this film, Taylor Swift has created an experience that is cinematic in every sense of the word — dazzling, immersive, and undeniably joyous — and in the sound and scope of Imax, it’s the closest thing to being at the concert itself.”
Ahead of opening, RelishMix, natch, noticed that word of mouth “ran positive” on Eras Tour.
Said the social media analytics firm, which counted over 523M followers for Swift on her social handles, “She’s proven her ability to mobilize local economies. Chatter from ‘Swifties’ called for unanimous support of the film, the battle cry ‘assemble SWIFTIES!’ and, “I’m traveling to Denver for opening night in the theater!!’ ringing loud and clear. Other die-hards are enchanted by the more accessible ticket price compared to the concert itself and plan to live out their Eras dreams at their local theater, ‘I don’t care what people say, I’m treating it like it’s the real thing. I couldn’t afford the concert ticket so I’ll settle for the movie’ Whatever Taylor era fans love best, the unanimous feeling seems to be that ‘She is about to actually save AMC theaters.'”
Swift dancing with Madonna-to-be Julia Garner at premiere the other night:
Total box office for all titles this weekend is estimated at $135.7M, +78% from the same frame in 2022, 11% above same period in 2021, but 4% off the pre-pandemic second weekend of October in 2019.
According to a NATO/Cinema Foundation survey of 6,000 moviegoers, 72% of film fans want to see more concert movies on the big screen.
1.) Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (AMC) 3,850 theaters, Fri $39M, Sat $32.3M Sun $23.7M-$25.7M 3-day $95M-$97M/Wk 1
2.) Exorcist: The Believer (Uni) Fri $3.8M (-68%) Sat $4.4M Sun $2.7M 3-day $11M, -58%, Total $48.6M/Wk 2
3.) Paw Patrol 2 (Par) 3,707 (-320) theaters, Fri $1.56M (-46%) Sat $3.3M Sun $2.1M, $7M (-38%) Total $49.9M/Wk 3
4.) Saw X (LG) 3,058 (-204) theaters, Fri $1.8M Sat $2.4M Sun $1.5M 3-day $5.7M (-27%) Total $41.4M/Wk 3
5.) The Creator (New Reg/20th)2,960 theaters (-720), Fri $1.16M (-34%), Sat $1.9M Sun $1.2M 3-day $4.3M (-31%), Total $32.4M/Wk 3
6.) A Haunting in Venice (Dis) 2,290 (-135) theaters Fri $580K (-24%) Sat $908K Sun $564K 3-day $2.05M (-24%)/Total $38.99M/Wk 5
7.) The Blind (Fath) 1,165 (-142) theaters Fri $532K Sat $851K Sun $638K , 3-day $2M (-38%), Total $13.9M/Wk 3
8.) The Nun 2 (NL) 2,128 theaters (-364), Fri $500K (-33%) Sat $715K Sun $400K 3-day $1.61M (-38%) Total $83.7M/Wk 6
9.) Equalizer 3 (Sony) 1,524 (-2) theaters Fri $266k (-49%) Sat $440K Sun $254K 3-day $960K (-47%), Total: $90.5M /Wk 7
10.) Dumb Money (Sony) 2,276 (-561) theaters, Fri $260K (-61%) Sat $415k Sun $245K 3-day $920K (-57%), Total $12.6M/Wk 5
SATURDAY PM: OK, so box office sources got excited, estimated that Taylor Swift: Eras Tour was going to open to $100M+, and all the while said in the same breath “We don’t know what we’re talking about. This one is hard to guess. It’s a unicorn.” Well, you were close, and that doesn’t mean that this concert pic’s opening is an upset with what’s looking like a $93.3M start. That’s the second-best domestic opening at the October box office after The Joker‘s $96.2M. What studio doesn’t want that?
For a film that cost between $10M-$20M with a thrifty marketing budget, that’s nothing to be upset about. Saturday is looking like $32.3M, -17% from Friday’s $39M haul (which includes $2.8M Thursday previews).
That Friday-to-Saturday hold is great for a female skewing movie, in fact it’s on par with Joker (-17%) as well as that DC pic’s Saturday haul which was $32.4M. In fact, Eras Tour isn’t that far from Little Mermaid‘s Friday to Saturday ease (-21%) and in her first two days, the concert movie has made $71.3M which is more than what that Disney live-action pic did over the same period which was $68.2M. Box office sources are forecasting that Sunday will be down another 30% from Saturday for Eras Tour. Where does it go from here? Will AMC and Swift change strategy (like they did pivoting to Thursday previews) and allow the movie to play during the week? Right now, it’s relegated to only play on the weekends.
Critique what you want: That Swift should have posted more on social, that she should have been popping up at movie theaters this weekend to spike business or do Q&As instead of SNL and the Chiefs Thursday night game. However, Eras Tour has the seventh best opening of 2023 to date, and the best opening of the fall which has seen its domestic box office suffer due to the actors strike.
SATURDAY AM WRITE THRU AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT 10:28 PM UPDATE: Sources said predicting Taylor Swift: Eras Tour would be a roller coaster ride, and well, here it is: Friday now looks to be settling at an estimated $37.8M –that’s according to industry estimates this morning. AMC is calling Friday for Eras Tour at $39M. That’s the second-biggest opening day of October, right behind The Joker‘s $39.3M back in 2019, and ahead of 2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage‘s $37.4M.
Despite that good news, this ratchets down the 3-day to $90M-$109M at 3,850 theaters. Again, that outlook doesn’t come from AMC. Here’s the thing, as we always said — if this movie misses the $100M mark and lands in the high $90Ms, that’s nothing for AMC and the industry to throw furniture around about. At $90M, Eras Tour would battle Venom: Let There be Carnage as the second-highest domestic start in October after Joker‘s $96.2M. Note, Eras Tour still has a shot at hitting the $100M bullseye. But you have to build in safeguards for Swift.
Why the range? Because one of these films are not like the other, meaning many still can’t figure how front-loaded this is, and whether the Swifties aren’t out in bulk tonight versus last night. Logic would dictate they would come out, given how many have seen her live show a couple of times. Some have Eras Tour modeled with a Saturday drop of -20% off Friday/previews, and others have Eras Tour tracking with a -1% dip or better, ala Disney’s live-action 2017 pic, Beauty and the Beast.
Still, that 20% drop between Friday/previews and Saturday is a better hold than the Friday-to-Saturdays of other female-skewing movies like Twilight (-41%), Barbie (-32%), and Sex and the City (-34%). Even at $90M, it’s still the best debut in the U.S. and Canada for a concert film; and hey, it’s the best damn opening we’ve had since Barbie, the box office having been greatly diluted by the actors’ strike and thespians’ forbidden to promote. Reminder, Eras Tour had a SAG-AFTRA interim agreement, which allowed Swift to post on social and appear at her world premiere.
We can’t forget this record: Eras Tour will rep the biggest start ever for a movie distributed by a movie theater chain, that being AMC.
And she’ll write her name in CinemaScore, meaning Swift gets a rare A+ in exit polls. Wow. There’s only been 86 movies which have received an A+ CinemaScore since the audience exit company began back in January 1986, and Swift is one of them. She’s in the company of such movies as Spider-Man: No Way Home, Black Panther, 1991’s Beauty and the Beast, Avengers: Endgame, Titanic, and E.T., to name a few. Rotten Tomatoes audience score is at 99%.
Other interesting tidbits we’ve heard throughout the weekend:
–In regards to the top 100 theaters by presales for the movie yesterday, 98 of those belonged to AMC, a feat rival studio distribution bosses have never seen before. PostTrak says that a majority of those who saw the pic bought their tickets in advance: 53% more than a week ago and another 20% in the last week. Walk-up business crowds were weighed at 27% yesterday.
–One boutique chain exhibitor griped to us that on a mega weekends such as this, they’re typically ahead. However, with the Eras Tour, they’re under-indexing. That’s because when AMC announced their distributed movie, they got out in front, hence conception for moviegoers is that the only place to watch Eras Tour is at an AMC theater.
—Eras Tour played across America despite many thinking she’d be big city heavy. Swift was big in the East, South, Midwest and Mountain. The Imax and PLFs are driving 26% of the total gross, which means many of her fans are opting to seeing in 2D. See, we told you her fanbase aren’t avid moviegoers. PostTrak shows that of those who watched the movie last night, 33% saw a movie a few times a year or less, while 32% get to the cinema every other month or so. AMC’s Lincoln Square is the top-grossing theater for her in the nation (sorry, AMC Burbank, the constant weekend champ) with a near $105K, which includes previews.
–There were sellouts yesterday, making capacity hard. Hence, walk-up business will be easier to accommodate today.
–Let the record show that during an ongoing actors strike, which is barreling this week toward its 100th day, at a time when actors and studios still can’t come to a deal, which is freezing the entire entertainment industry and watering down the box office: the CEO of the No. 1 theater circuit, Adam Aron, has single-handedly, with Eras Tour, pulled the fall box office out of the gutter with all pics this weekend earning an estimated $141M, +85% from a year ago, when Halloween Ends bowed to $40M in a theatrical day-and-date means on Peacock. That’s the biggest weekend we’ve had at the box office since the third frame of Barbie (Aug. 4-6) when all pics grossed $172.7M. This weekend also beats the same frame in 2021, when No Time to Die opened (all pics grossed $122.5M), however, it’s under pre-pandemic 2019, when Joker led the domestic marketplace to $161M.
–Updated Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak exits for Eras Tour are 96% positive, 89% definite recommend, kids under 12 hugging this at 97% positive, and 83% must-see right away. Female skewing at 82%, of course, with 63% between 18-34 and the 25-34 year old being the biggest demo at 32%, followed by 13-17 at 32%. Diversity demos were Caucasian 59%, Latino and Hispanic at 25%, Black at 3%, and Asian/other at 13%.
–Remember, this wasn’t a normal major studio marketing campaign, with Swift telling her half billion-plus on social a few times about the movie, and a single digit TV ad spot campaign during NFL games where the multi-Grammy winner was cheering on b.f. Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce. Those asked by PostTrak said Instagram (34%) and TikTok (27%) were the most influential social media platforms for them when it came to catching ads about Eras Tour. Ads that moviegoers caught before heading to Eras Tour were on social media (52%), friends/family word of mouth (36%), online trailer/preview (29%), online video ads (23%), TV ads (22%), and in-theater poster/ads (20%).
–52% of those who saw the movie last night told PostTrak, “I am eager to see a sequel, there is a lot more to explore.”Do you hear that Andrea and Scott Swift? Eras Tour 2: Electric Boogaloo.
–What happens now that the Swifties have seen Eras Tour? 53% say they’ll see it again in theater, 39% say they’ll find a free way to watch it again, while 28% will buy it on DVD and 27% on digital.
–Myriad stats about Swifties who showed up last night, per PostTrak: 38% are pet owners (Taylor loves cats), 28% attend live events like concerts, 25% identify as politically liberal, 21% are registered Democrats, 21% identify as LGBTQ+, while 22% are college grads.
Other fun stuff: Eras Tour‘s day one at the box office beats the entire domestic cume of such Swift starring movies as Cats ($27.1M) and Amsterdam ($14.9M), but was under the domestic total of The Giver ($45M).
Saturday AM estimates:
1.) Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (AMC) 3,850 theaters, Fri $39M, 3-day $90M-$109M/Wk 1
2.) Exorcist: The Believer (Uni) Fri $3.77M (-68%), 3-day $11M, -58%, Total $48.6M/Wk 2
3.) Paw Patrol 2 (Par) 3,707 (-320) theaters, Fri $1.55M (-46%), $6.1M (-46%) Total $48.9M/Wk 3
4.) Saw X (LG) 3,058 (-204) theaters, Fri $1.78M (-26%) 3-day $5.7M (-27%) Total $41.4M/Wk 3
5.) The Creator (New Reg/20th)2,960 theaters (-720), Fri $1.16M (-34%), 3-day $4M (-35%), Total $32.1M/Wk 3
6.) A Haunting in Venice (Dis) 2,290 (-135) theaters Fri $580K (-24%), 3-day $2M (-25%)/Total $38.6M/Wk 5
7.) The Blind (Fath) 1,165 (-142) theaters Fri $540K (-47%), 3-day $1.69M (-47%), Total $13.6M/Wk 3
8.) The Nun 2 (NL) 2,128 theaters (-364), Fri $500K (-33%) 3-day $1.7M (-35%) Total $83.8M/Wk 6
9.) Equalizer 3 (Sony) 1,524 (-2) theaters Fri $266k (-49%) 3-day $920K (-49%), Total: $90.5M /Wk 7
10.) Dumb Money (Sony) 2,276 (-561) theaters, Fri $260K (-61%) 3-day $823K (-66%), Total $12.5M/Wk 5
Friday Afternoon Update: Baby, Let the Games Begin….“This one is hard to predict,” is the constant mantra this weekend among rival box office sources guesstimating the opening swing for Sam Wrench’s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour concert movie. Friday is currently pegged in the $40M-$50M range with a big spread of $107M-$130M at 3,850 theaters for the weekend as a whole.
On the high-end, that could be the third biggest opening at the 2023 domestic B.O. after Barbie ($162m) and Super Mario Bros’ 3-day of $146.3M. Added another source about the Eras Tour outlook: “Prepare for us to be wrong.”
Why are Swift concert film projections calculus to box office bean counters instead of the usual weekly algebra? Basically, there’s an enormous amount of frontloaded presales here, plus the x-factor is how many walk-ups occur. Add to that the standard drops on Saturday night with a young-female skewing title. One source has The Eras Tour tracking ahead of Barbie‘s pure Friday gross (less $22.3M Thursday previews), which was $48.2M. That said, no one is expecting Swift here to play out like Barbie which strutted to a $162M opening. We’ll have more updates as they come.
Meanwhile, haters aren’t going to hate: Critics on Rotten Tomatoes are giving Eras Tour a 100% score. AMC isn’t sending out official figures until tomorrow.
Early Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak from last night, which was combed from $2.8M previews, gave Eras Tours five stars or 95% positive. Parents gave it 4 stars and kids under 12, 5 stars. Thursday night leaned 76% women with females under 25 at 42%, females over 25 at 34% and guys way behind at 15% over 25 and 9% under. Moms, natch, outnumbered Dads, 67% to 33% with an jawdropping 95% girls making up the majority of kids under 12. Best grades are women over 25 (100%) and under (97%) while men over 25 grit their teeth for 2 hours and 48 minutes giving Eras Tour its lowest grade of 78%. Note: These exits will shift over the weekend.
The weeken’d runner up looks to be Universal/Blumhouse/Morgan Creek’s Exorcist: Believer at 3,684 locations. It’s seeing a second Friday of $3.8M, second weekend of $11M, -58%, for a ten-day of $44.9M.
Third is Paramount/Spin Master’s Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie ($1.45M third Friday, $5.7M third weekend, -50% with $48.5M at 3,707 theaters). Fourth is Liongate’s third weekend of Saw X ($5.4M, -31%) after a $1.9M estimated Friday and cume by Sunday of $41.1M while New Regency/20th Century Studio’s The Creator is in fifth at 2,960 theaters with a third Friday of $950K estimated, $3.3M 3-day and $31.3M running total.
Previously: The AMC distributed Taylor Swift: Eras Tour concert movie officially made $2.8M in Thursday night previews.
We told you last night that the rough estimate was below $5M. The pic played in 2,700 theatres with showings last night beginning at 6 p.m. local time.
Remember, these previews aren’t indicative of how the weekend will go. Projections of $100M+ stateside still stand at 3,855 theaters. Swift announced Wednesday night moments before her premiere that she was pivoting her lucky 13 release date plan of Friday 6PM to Thursday night previews for the Sam Wrench directed movie. In certain places, advance tickets for the concert film last night didn’t go on sale until six to eight hours before showtime.
In addition, Swift was competing with herself last night: If you were a die-hard fan, chances are you could have been watching her at the Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos game where she was cheering on Travis Kelce.
There are technically no comps to last night, not only because of the last-minute addition of Thursday previews, but also there haven’t been many wide release concert movies in the preview millennium era of box office. Interestingly enough, the midnight showtime starts for Michael Jackson concert docu, This Is It, drew $2.2M on its Tuesday night, Oct. 27, before posting a $7.4M Wednesday and $34.4M five-day.
The last minute showtimes for Eras Tour didn’t take too much air out of the sleepy autumn box office with Universal/Blumhouse/Morgan Creek’s The Exorcist: Believer earning an estimated $1.3M yesterday at 3,663 theaters, -9% from Wednesday for a first week of $33.9M.
Lionsgate’s Saw X at 3,262 theaters did $729K yesterday, +1% from Wednesday, and $11.3M in week 2 and $35.7M running cume.
Paramount and Spin Master’s second week of Paw Patrol: The Might Movie earned $15.8M after a second Thursday of $620K, +2%, at 4,027 theaters. The animated pic’s running total is $42.8M.
New Regency/20th Century Studios/Disney’s The Creator at 3,680 theaters grossed $571K on Thursday, even with Wednesday, with a second week of $9.3M and a running total of $28M.
Fathom Events’ The Blind saw $271K at 1,312 theaters, and a second week of $4.5M and a running total of $11.9M.
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